Volume 1

Global climate change and sustainable development : third report of Session 2001-02 / International Development Committee.

  • Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. International Development Committee.
Date:
2002
Catalogue details

Licence: Open Government Licence

Credit: Global climate change and sustainable development : third report of Session 2001-02 / International Development Committee. Source: Wellcome Collection.

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    dependent. India, Thailand, Colombia and many sub-Saharan countries are likely to be losers while China, Mexico and Kenya could see gains.’ Many of the losers will already have large populations of very poor people. e Less water combined with heat stress will probably reduce the global yield of major food staples (wheat, rice, maize) by 5 to 10 per cent by 2050 e Greatest reductions are expected to be in Africa (except in equatorial Africa), the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent. Effects on risk of hunger ¢ With low income groups less able to afford sufficient food, hunger is estimated to increase, probably by about an additional 50 million at risk of hunger by 2050. e Projected increase in hunger due to climate change is almost entirely in Africa, due to high vulnerability because of poverty and weak infrastructure. e The poorest groups are most likely to be negatively affected. 24. Food demand will continue to grow, with growing population and wealth, and reductions in crop yields may lead to increased prices. The poor, already the most at risk of hunger, would become more vulnerable as food prices rise.’ The countries that suffer lower yields will rely increasingly on food imports to bridge the gap between supply and demand, but developing countries will often lack the foreign exchange needed to import food. A combination of falling domestic production and reduced food imports could further increase food prices.’* As the areas of food production shift, infrastructure and systems for transport and distribution will need to be improved so that food can be easily moved from growing areas to the areas of the world where it is needed. Impact on water resources 25. Water is a finite resource unevenly distributed across the globe and often only seasonally available.’ Demand for water has increased as populations have grown and economic development has taken place. About one third of the world’s population now lives in countries that are water stressed and twenty per cent of the world’s population does not have ready access to drinking water, while forty per cent lack sanitation facilities.”” Climate change imposes yet another pressure.’”* It will affect the quantity and timing of rainfall which will in turn affect the volume, timing and quality of river flows and groundwater recharge.” As a result, the size and frequency of floods could increase in many areas.*’ Figure 6 (see page 14) shows projected changes in annual runoff by 2050 for two different climate models. Higher temperatures will increase evaporation rates making water stress more acute. Given that around seventy per cent of the world’s available fresh water is used in agriculture, any impact on water resources could have a knock-on effect jie in the 21* Century: Global Climate Disparities, Mahendra Shah, International Institute for Applied Systems alysis. EV 40 Report of IPCC Working Group I: Summary for Policy Makers, 2001 a in the 21* Century: Global Climate Disparities, Mahendra Shah, International Institute for Applied Systems alysis. pee in the 21 Century: Global Climate Disparities, Mahendra Shah, International Institute for Applied Systems alysis. “Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology , 2002, Postnote number 178, Access to water in developing countries : Ev 43 [para 4.1] EY 42 [para 2.1] Report of IPCC Working Group II: Summary for Policy Makers, 2001